[MissoulaGov] Moratoriums and Vacancy Rates

Jim McGrath jmcgrath at missoulahousing.org
Fri Jun 29 11:04:37 MDT 2007


Came from the city's housing report. Ask OPG about the methodology and
so on.



While we're on the topic, though, it is worth noting that there is some
variation in how vacancy rates should be calculated. As with most
statistics, this means different analysts can come up with wildly
differing numbers, depending on the method.



I had my facts straight, but that doesn't mean Paul's source was not
using a different source of information than mine.



Btw mine reflects an annual figure from the past year, not a recent
assessment. I don't think conditions have changed all that much in
recent months, but the vacancy rates from the report were fro this
spring.



________________________________

From: missoulagov-bounces at cmslists.com
[mailto:missoulagov-bounces at cmslists.com] On Behalf Of Paul Sopko
Sent: Friday, June 29, 2007 9:30 AM
To: missoulagov at cmslists.com; Bob Jaffe
Subject: Re: [MissoulaGov] Moratoriums and Vacancy Rates



<If banks put a lending moratorium on multi-family construction it would
effectively illustrate a large excess of new rentals in <Missoula's
market. And perhaps that was the persons intent when they made that
comment to you. For the sake of this list-serve (which reaches a great
deal of people and more daily) I'd hope we'd make sure we have facts
before making comments that <drastically affect the way we all view
Missoula's growing housing market. Only when we are well informed can
we make thoughtful <decisions on the future growth of Missoula.

<Thanks,

<Jerry



My comments were based on a conversation I had with a commercial lender
about 3-4 months ago. I don't think I was lied to. Banks are diverse
with respect to their lending practices and those comments probably
reflected the practice of a couple (not all) banks in the Missoula area.
I felt this information was pertinent given that Mr. McGrath was
claiming (without any credible numbers to back it up) that "housing
numbers" showed a vacancy rate of 1%. Given your lenders estimates, I
feel the this small debate is beneficial to the listserv since Jim
didn't seem to have his facts straight before posting the 1% claim.



Thanks.



Paul Sopko

----- Original Message -----

From: Jerry Petasek <mailto:missoula-kid at hotmail.com>

To: missoulagov at cmslists.com

Sent: Thursday, June 28, 2007 3:06 PM

Subject: [MissoulaGov] Moratoriums and Vacancy Rates



Paul Sopko wrote:

"BTW, I heard a couple of months ago that local banks had put a
moratorium on loans for construction of multi-unit apartment complexes
because the vacancy rate for these units had become uncomfortably high.
"


In regards to this comment I contacted two local commercial
lenders that I work with and they commented:

"Don't think that is accurate. Pretty normal vacancy rates from
what I hear- running around 4-6%. Obviously with school out it could be
higher right now but if there is a moratorium out there it is news to
me."

"Sure news to me. You see some signs up for vacant units, But I
think that's typical at this time of year. Haven't heard of abnormally
high vacancy."

If banks put a lending moratorium on multi-family construction
it would effectively illustrate a large excess of new rentals in
Missoula's market. And perhaps that was the persons intent when they
made that comment to you. For the sake of this list-serve (which
reaches a great deal of people and more daily) I'd hope we'd make sure
we have facts before making comments that drastically affect the way we
all view Missoula's growing housing market. Only when we are well
informed can we make thoughtful decisions on the future growth of
Missoula.

Thanks,

Jerry


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